SCENARIO TWO
We can all be heroes
The world in 2025 is fraught with division – trust between people, society and big business has broken down which is causing friction between all parts of society. We’ve been looking to individuals to guide and lead us and not taking the onus on ourselves to collectively effect change.
What we know for certain is this: in 2024 the climate crisis saw the highest global temperature on record, 1.5°C higher than the 1990 baseline. This, in turn, is causing increasingly severe natural disasters such as Los Angeles’ Palisades fires.
We also know that the role of technology is paramount in creating a society fit for the future, sustainable and safe for all. So, what will break down the walls between business and the public and allow governments to tap into the expertise of business without looking as though it’s been bought? It already feels in some nations as though the country is being secretly, or even overtly, run by billionaires with no interest in the greater good, only an interest in their own bottom line. And those voices that are speaking on behalf of the environment or societal good, are seen as outliers without a political mandate, albeit respected ones. While they are saying what we believe, they have no ability to create the change we need.
The UK is feeling the impact of decades of decreasing infrastructure investment and while ‘on the verge of collapse’ maybe hyperbole, it is not uncommon to hear of problems with energy or water supply and issues with roads and rail lines.
There is, however, a maelstrom of unrest brewing: unemployment is high, living costs are constantly increasing, the birth population is falling but immigration is rising, which causes its own issues. We have the ongoing struggle with the climate crisis and targets to hit in the next 50 years to protect our people and planet. It is a whirlpool of contradictions, and the outcomes could be catastrophic.
Let’s explore how a catastrophic incident could create a scenario that jolts the nation out of the possibility of entering a season of civil unrest while providing a wake-up call to business to look beyond profits, and a reminder politicians to prioritise the nation.
It’s 2030. We’re still living through the climate crisis, but it feels as though we’re taking one step forward and 43 steps back. The earth is warmer, sea levels are rising and the impact on the population is inescapable. People are angry, tired, hot. There are protests outside Westminster daily; people are concerned that these issues are not being taken seriously. Big brands are pilloried for their use of natural resources to create unessential products, which still somehow manage to drive huge profitability. It’s a perfect storm, and on one rainy day in 2030, the riverbanks break.
Well, the Thames Barrier does. Despite being declared fit for service until 2070, extreme weather driven by climate change has seen it under increased pressure and, within a matter of days, much of London is under water.
The impact of this is huge. With one massive gush, Parliament and the City are wiped out, millions of people are homeless and, for a country centred on its capital, the emotional impact is devastating.
Due to the loss of Parliament and to prevent civil unrest, the Prime Minister cedes power temporarily to the Crown to allow for the rebuilding of government. This necessitates the rehousing of millions of people from London and the South to the North, creating new homes and new communities in a short period of time.
Business follows suit – new HQs pop up from Sheffield to Aberdeen and, with them, jobs in white-collar industries start to be more available to those outside of the capital. But, creating new housing and moving people has greatly affected the agricultural industry, with land previously used for farming being used for towns.
Moving the population of a huge, multicultural melting pot drives more collaboration on ideas and those ideas become reality as it’s no longer about change, it’s about creation. So, we have a new face of agriculture as Britain starts to lead the world in lab-grown food, our manufacturing industries take on increased usage of robotics and automation, our building industry is thriving as new homes, offices, schools and factories are needed. All these things come together to rebuild Britain’s economy and position in the world.
Additionally, it’s not just business that finds space to thrive – people are coming together to share food, homes and essentials with those who were left unhoused after the floods, creating a more caring community than has been seen through the first quarter of the millennium.
However, there is an impact on personal relationships – the loss of lives has created an anxiety around human connection and more people are turning to the relative safety of parasocial relationships, thanks to the rise of AI which gives consistency in a time of turmoil.
Once the new government is formed, King William hands back power to Parliament and there is a new society of hope.
Shafiq, age 60 in 2035
It’s not something you expect to see from your Docklands office...
I was sitting at my desk back when I worked in financial services, and saw what looked like a tsunami hurtling down the Thames. We were rescued from the roof of our building the next day; it was terrifying.
Thankfully, my family and I were physically unharmed – however our homes and jobs were wiped out. We had a tight-knit community: my mum and dad lived close by, as did my sister, so all our go-to locations were destroyed.
It’s only been five years since it happened but we’ve settled into our new home in Yorkshire and now we’re all living in the same house, which I think helps the kids feel more secure. I decided to take an early retirement; that kind of stress and feeling of hopelessness, where you think you’ve lost it all, really helps put what matters into perspective. For me, for the first time in my life, I realised I wanted to help rebuild the country and not spend my time moving numbers on a spreadsheet. When we first moved here, we were placed with a lovely family who taught me and my son how to grow vegetables – neither of us had done that before but the King William potato seeds we were all gifted have thrived in our garden.
My daughter is really great at science so she’s been learning at university (online now) how to create food in a lab, making sure that it’s nutritious and tastes good. We’ve not experienced it yet, but she says it’s worth considering.
The most surprising thing for me in the last five years has been seeing how those billionaire ‘tech bros’ are putting their hands in their pockets to support the people below. Our new home is much more technologically advanced than our place in London and the libraries and social spaces here are decked out with all the latest gadgets. It’s good to see it all come together.
I hope we can maintain this – then at least there will have been some learning from the tragedy of losing London, and hopefully we’ll create a better tomorrow.
Anna Fredlander, Principal Social Value Consultant, Hoare Lea
Community-led development will become the norm, due to the focus on rehousing rather than profit-driven real estate targets. With locations already identified for developing new communities, we can engage future residents early in the process, ensure their needs and create more resilient places. Projects will prioritise social infrastructure due to the need for people to find a sense of belonging, meaning and mattering. Digital solutions will be driven by their needs.
The requirement for new skills, coupled with the rise of online education, will enhance access to quality jobs, levelling the playing field for marginalised groups. However, creating place-based communities for online students remains a challenge. The next generation will be valued more, with increased engagement with young people through the design process, as they are the ones who now possess the skills necessary to navigate this new world.
Astrid, age 41 in 2050
We lost everything when London went under water– not just our home but loved ones too. Honestly, I didn’t think we’d make it through. The loss still weighs heavily.
I was 16 in 2025 and about to sit my GCSEs when the flood happened – that entire year did not do their exams until the following year, it was just not prioritised. As an adult now, I can see that the pressure on education leaders must have been huge, but they chose our mental health and wellbeing over box-ticking. With all the changes since then, I’m grateful that they did. It could have been very different but we were never seen as a lost generation which I’m told has had a bit of an impact on kids who were our age during Covid19.
I’ve been lucky to go to university and be part of the generation that’ll help this nation rebuild – I worked in food tech and have created GM seeds and lab-grown food with a focus on nutrition and ease of production. It is gratifying work.
I know this has had an impact on my ability to forge long-lasting personal relationships. I fear loss most of all, so instead of making friends or dating people, I spend a lot of time online; digital friends cannot die. And while this may seem dramatic, we’re still suffering the impacts of the climate crisis. We may have a new home in the North, but I’ve lost countless family members and friends to that.
We’re all encouraged to wear monitors – they track our health as well as our environments. I know my mum struggles with this and feels as though she’s being watched by a big, scary non-entity but, for my generation, this feels normal and provides safety in a confusing world.
The great flood has brought a much-needed period of stability and acceptance across what remains of the UK, albeit with emotional and social costs. I’m excited to see what the next 50 years holds.
Jo Drane, Project Director and Sustainability Lead, Hoare Lea
Considering the effects of a devastating flood in London means that we must start evaluating and embedding climate resilience within built environment designs now. Risk assessments should always include potential future climate events where proposed buildings will be built. These help to determine the threat level and inform mitigation measures, not only within the buildings but in creating disaster management plans to follow if such an event should occur.
Development proposals must be interrogated more rigorously in high-risk areas, encouraging developments to be situated in low-risk areas. More stringent requirements should be in place for existing buildings and businesses to determine their risk assessment level as well as plans to de-risk their assets.
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