SCENARIO ONE
It’s the good life for me
In the last 25 years, we’ve seen highs and lows for individuals and wider society. In an age where the climate crisis is acknowledged and solutions are being explored, the population still feels as though individual needs and requirements are not being met. A lack of strong government in many countries has created a scarcity of food, shelter and water and financial disparity is producing a society of two halves – the haves and the have nots.
One area that is accessible for all is the rise of social media since the start of the millennium. While originally conceived and used as a source of shared information, giving voice to the many as well as sharing the views of previously trusted sources such as the media, the rise of algorithms has meant that people are no longer seeing a wide range of views on these channels. Instead they are fed more of what they interact with, creating entrenched views rather than encouraging acceptance of differing viewpoints.
Low-skilled job opportunities are in short supply due to the growth of AI but the benefits promised by the ideas of computing power such as quantum have not yet been achieved. All these elements combined make fertile ground for division and set up a future society where the state is no longer able to create or maintain the infrastructure required to provide long-term societal benefits.
This combination creates the perfect breeding ground for civil division. Essentials such as energy and food are growing to be so cost-prohibitive that we could see a rise in people living off-grid and growing their own food, rather than paying over the odds. This could, in turn, lead to the rise of collective communities that generate their own power and only engage with wider society when absolutely needed.
While it may seem in 2025 that this is a long way off, looking at the Far East and China, we can see that manufacturing of EV products and solar PV panels is a fast-growing market and this will drive down prices, encouraging more people to take advantage of this for long-term gains. There will naturally be implications for the UK manufacturing industry as global brands have shown that people still want to spend money and will shop around for the best price regardless of the environmental and social impacts.
Fuelling this desire for personal liberties is a growing mistrust in the powers of the land – be that business or government.
Business is seen as only interested in lining its own pockets and, without a popular mandate, the government will struggle to achieve unity or targets such as Net Zero Carbon as individuals stop believing that they are able to effect global change and instead focus on their own outputs and associated outcomes.
Taking this to an extreme, we could see banks collapse as people prefer to put their money where they can see it – be that into mortgage-free properties or under their beds...
In fact, this individualistic approach could finally see cryptocurrency becoming a main player in financial markets as anything regarded as old-school or serving to make the rich richer will lose its popularity. It is also worth considering that we could see the return of hyper-local building societies, who commit to investing on their doorsteps rather than to the global economy.
Hamza, age 55 in 2035
I grew up in the Nineties where everything seemed to have so much promise, but as time went on, I began to feel as though my wellbeing was suffering due to global circumstances. Watching the news, seeing atrocities that had been funded by my government, turned my stomach and then to have those events impact my everyday life by increasing costs on energy, food, and all other essentials, really got my goat.
In the late 2020s, my family and I decided to explore living off-grid, starting with converting a large camper and selling our house to live on the road. We started to feel some freedom from what we felt was oppressive governmental control. We also didn’t want our kids to be fed propaganda at school so my wife homeschooled them. We’re not hippy-dippy though; we believe in medicine and vaccinations. We do use technology but we’re very careful about what we engage with online; it’s just a good way to keep in touch with others who’ve made similar life choices.
By 2035 we’d parked our van in a small commune just outside Salford. With our neighbours, we grow vegetables and share produce, and we’re exploring how to go fully off-grid .
My background is aircraft manufacturing so I’m able to help with this; others in our community provide different skills. It has worked really well so far; the kids have friends and we’re all thriving.
Ashley Bateson, Head of Sustainability, Hoare Lea
A desire for autonomy and self-sufficiency could arise from frustrations with global trends. Rising resource costs, trust issues and scepticism of external motives could result in feelings of helplessness. Critical thinking is healthy, and a minimum level of independence is good for everyone. But it is easy to forget that collective support systems from trusted institutions, and innovations from business, have helped to deliver relatively high standards of living in recent decades.
It’s important that governments uphold their duty to manage institutions with integrity, at national and local level, so that trust is maintained, and adequate governance is in place to protect citizens from exploitation and misinformation.
At the same time, business leaders should deliver services responsibly to avoid detrimental impacts. In some cases, regulation and effective enforcement may be necessary to protect social and environmental outcomes in the market. With this responsible approach to governance we can continue with a functioning society that allows people to thrive.
Cillian, age 35 in 2050
I was 10 in 2025, and one of my childhood memories is of my mum and dad shouting at the TV and any politician or businessperson on there. Every day saw new reasons for them to be furious about something...
No wonder that period of time is now called the Rage Age.
For me, it was a huge upheaval moving from our house in the suburbs to a rural setting and I didn’t really understand why. As I got older and started engaging more with communities on social media, I realised that my parents were right – we were living under a system that only served the people who held power. I was removed from traditional education when I was about 12 years old and while I can still read and write like anyone of my age, I also was taught skills; everything from carpentry and cooking to coding and cabling. I became a creator of physical goods so this way of learning proved more beneficial than anything I could have learned in a book.
Our lives aren’t exactly easy and I would not bring a child into this world right now, but it does feel as though we’re on the precipice of a time when people who can do things have more value in society than some vacuous teenager putting on make-up on the internet or a politician who has big business in their pockets.
What’s been great about this shift is that we rarely think about our life as ‘them and us’ as my parents did; instead we focus on our collective needs, which has created a much warmer environment.
Anna Fredlander, Principal Social Value Consultant, Hoare Lea
Community ownership and stewardship of shared buildings will be commonplace but when supported by the construction industry, and the resources at its disposal, this will be far more successful, ensuring social infrastructure needs (schools, parks, libraries, other shared spaces) are met.
The built environment industry will need to adapt to facilitate communities to do this work themselves, rather than developing land and selling it back. Within developments it will be key that social infrastructure genuinely responds to community needs and enables community ownership, to maintain social structures and collective direction and avoid civil unrest.
Where social infrastructure is not meeting people’s needs, it is more likely they will break away and create their own structures. It will be more important to design self-sufficient neighbourhoods, providing all food and essential amenities. A localised, place-based approach will be fundamental to all design.
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