All change.
For the future of UK transport.
Gauging the direction of travel (clue: it's up)
Image courtesy of Aerospace Technology Institute
POSSIBILITIES
There’s been major movement for the country’s transit networks, with connectivity reaching new heights, and positive inroads that will shape how we get about, how we work and how we live.
Lately it feels like the news has been full of transport overhaul; everything from railway nationalisation to zero-emission bus initiatives, and an agenda driven to a greater extent by environmental goals, economic growth and social equity.
There have been forward steps towards localised decision-making while, at the other end of the scale, the space sector has been facilitating giant leaps for terrestrial transport. The UK Space Agency put up £1.5million to fund the use of satellite tech and AI to reduce shipping emissions, optimise rail-decarbonising designs, and create safe walking routes for the visually impaired from Earth observation data.
Remarkable civil engineering innovations are in progress. We’re talking self-healing roads, made from biomass waste, mending their own potholes to cut down on maintenance needs and carbon emissions linked to asphalt production.
The UK Government’s newly unveiled carbon budget delivery plan promises that 22% of plane fuel will be sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). The aviation sector has been seriously addressing how to transition away from fossil fuels towards alternative energy sources, all the while working to democratise everyday sustainable air travel, ensuring that it remains a pillar of the global market and accommodates increasing passenger demand.
With aviation being one of the key areas that we’re focusing our efforts on improving, we took a closer look at its direction of travel.
Record highs
In 2024, global tourism returned to 98% of pre-pandemic levels, according to UN travel reports which predicted that 2025 would again see an increase, while the International Air Transport Association projected that, given our ever-growing global population, 2025 would see passenger figures exceeding five billion for the first time.
As the UK Government hunted for growth opportunities to “get Britain building again”, plans were approved for a second runway at London Gatwick Airport which would allow the 280,000 annual flights the airport handles to rise by over 100,000 by the end of the next decade.
The Government also backed a third runway at Heathrow and approved Luton airport’s expansion to double passenger numbers by 2043.
While UK holiday makers continue to enjoy home-based ‘staycations’, there’s no mistaking that air travel is on the up and hitting record highs.
Of course, all this is going to require much greater emissions reductions.
Gavin Blakemore
Director, Hoare Lea
Gavin gives us an overview of the improvement measures being undertaken behind the scenes in the aviation sector.
Sustainability and decarbonisation
Airports are reducing carbon emissions with lifecycle assessments, material reuse, Design for Manufacture and Assembly (DfMA), and SAF.
Renewable energy
While solar, electric and hydrogen are familiar renewable energies, there are many others in the pipeline with hidden benefits.
Advanced technology Digital models, AI, wi-fi personal networks, autonomous aircraft and smart systems are improving operational efficiency as well as passenger experience.
Managing growth For an airport to upgrade while maintaining a live environment, it needs to build in flexibility for terminal and runway expansion early, secure planning permissions and ensure works don’t negatively impact passenger experience or communities on flight paths.
Passenger expectations Airports are improving services with technology innovations including biometrics, smart systems and personalised services.
Now let’s look at some examples of the specific efforts being made to meet environmental, economic and social goals.
How about this rubbish idea?
Altalto (Immingham) Limited has been awarded funding from the UK Department for Transport’s Advanced Fuels Fund to complete basic engineering design for its waste-to-SAF facility which now has planning consent as well as the support of the Government. Expected to deliver more than 100,000 tonnes of CO2-equivalent savings annually, it has been designed to produce 30 million litres of sustainable aviation fuel annually*, all from waste – diverting it from landfill, supporting the circular economy and creating jobs in the Humber region. *The UK currently burns 14 billion litres of fuel per year, 1% of which is SAF, so there’s a way to go.
Image courtesy of Aerospace Technology Institute
Jacqueline Castle
Chief Technology Officer, Aerospace Technology Institute
Record highs
“Undoubtedly the most exciting theme in aviation is the prospect of a wholly new single-aisle aircraft as this presents a major opportunity to put UK-made aerospace technologies, developed through the ATI Programme, into the skies,” says Jacqueline Castle. “ATI analysis shows we can double our market share value to $18bn by 2035 but doing so will require a joint effort across industry to advance capability in design and manufacture with key opportunities in areas such as composite materials.”
The UK has a history of world-leading capability in wings and engines and these technologies hold the greatest potential for making future aircraft more efficient.”
There’s one home-soil-specific innovation that Jacqueline feels will have a dramatically transformative real-world impact. “The UK has a history of world-leading capability in wings and engines and these technologies hold the greatest potential for making future aircraft more efficient. With support of ATI Programme funding, Airbus is developing leaner, lighter, longer, more aerodynamic wings as part of its Wing of Tomorrow programme while Rolls-Royce’s UltraFan engine programme offers a 25% fuel burn improvement on the first generation of Trent engines.
There is, of course, plenty of development going on further afield too. “Some engine manufacturers are researching radically new open-rotor engine technology, where there is no nacelle or casing around the propellors. The RISE engine aims to improve fuel efficiency by more than 20% compared to today’s engines, with aircraft-level integration developments also needed to unlock this benefit. Aerospace is a globally competitive sector so we know innovation and collaboration are key to the UK winning market share on future aircraft.”
It’s certainly encouraging to see exactly what’s going into enhancing everyday aviation for people and planet. “Cleaner, quieter aircraft will make air travel more comfortable for passengers while also improving the environment for those living near to airports,” says Jacqueline. “Every new aircraft entering into service today uses around 20% less fuel than the aircraft it replaces.
“Ramping up availability of sustainable aviation fuel is also key to addressing lifecycle emissions of the fuel. Longer term, we know the ultra-efficient and zero-carbon aircraft technologies we are working with government and industry to develop will be critical to addressing carbon emissions as well as non-CO2 emissions at source.”
Human consideration: easing the daily grind?
Anirudh Subramanyam Mantripragada and C.S.R.K. Prasad’s systematic review on the urban commuter’s daily trip, in October 2025’s Journal of Transport and Health, found that lengthy, congested commutes take a toll on health. Creating “turbulence in the psyche”, they usurp time meant for “life beyond job”, especially for the female workforce.
They concluded that associated fatigue could influence attitude at home, derailing family, personal and social time, plus time for physical activity – which could manifest into long-term health concerns.
With motorist numbers rising, shifting some traffic into the skies may ease road pressure and increase life satisfaction. But as we come to expect to travel faster, cheaper, greener, could there be a cost? Even with electrification, all this hypermobility – which constitutes to a growing extent who we are, according to research (A Darker Side of Hypermobility, Cohen and Gössling, 2015) – does raise questions regarding future impact. It’s an area we’re looking at, with our Head of Societal Impacts Dr Paul Hanna involved in the follow-up paper evaluating media comment on Cohen and Gössling’s study.
It explored how we negotiate explicit physical, psychological and social health warnings surrounding hypermobility and its glamorisation, and negative effects of frequent business travel. It also advised of the need for understanding around how more direct or ‘internal’ wellbeing consequences of frequent travel, as opposed to ‘external’ environmental costs alone, might provide greater leverage in stimulating behavioural transitions. We should take such research into account as we progress. Then there’
the matter of how the buildings supporting more aircraft will be received and experienced. Airport expansions can significantly change the lives of local communities, and this change needs to be for the better.
“Big infrastructure developments such as airports are often met with resistance as they have historically taken away from local communities,” says Dr Paul Hanna. “Done right, they can be a catalyst for positive change, but that requires early community engagement to understand complex local needs and working together to understand how such investment can address them by giving back through new social infrastructure, educational partnerships, community interest companies, and so on.”
Image courtesy of Virgin Atlantic
We're the Jetsons: a new era in air travel
Virgin Atlantic and Californian eVTOL specialist Joby Aviation are launching a short-haul air taxi service that could connect passengers (four per eVtol, plus one pilot) at Virgin hubs Heathrow and Manchester Airport. What will this look like? Quick, quiet, emissions-free travel that’s city-friendly – using electric motor-powered propellers that can manage 100 miles and a 200mph maximum speed without the usual engine noise. Just think: Bristol to London, say, in half an hour. With Uber also taking on Joby’s Blade helicopter service, urban mobility is making moves.
Electric flight (at scale)
Similarly, a Bristol-built electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft, the VX4 – conceived by Vertical Aerospace to reimagine the regional flight with zero-emission air mobility – has taken a step from prototype to reality.
In September, a significant jump ahead was announced for UK operations and initial VX4 production – the first dedicated manufacturing sites for aircraft assembly (Cotswold Airport) and battery production (Avonmouth, Bristol). The shift towards commercial production means future scaling is on the horizon.
Aviation stations: decarbing on the ground
It’s these global gateways that we’ve been lending our design and sustainability expertise to. “With electronic flight innovation and zero-carbon SAF, is it possible that aircraft themselves will hit environmental targets quicker than the buildings they took off from?” asks Gavin Blakemore. “While some airports are merely buying green electricity and offsetting instead of fixing the problem within the building itself, planes are making so many genuinely innovational strides forward that I can see a point where manufacturing could suddenly reach net zero, with the old airports being left behind.”
Gavin recognises the reality that aviation is not slowing down while acknowledging it’s a charged, controversial topic. He feels the moral question that can overshadow its built assets is more reason not to shy away – for designers to be pragmatic and to ask the difficult questions of themselves.
“This is an industry struggling to decarbonise, and we’ve got all the technical expertise in-house to help them achieve their net-zero goals. Do we sit on the sidelines because it’s a hard task, or do we roll our sleeves up and get involved with making it more carbon-neutral? Do we hope the experts are on it or do we put ourselves forward as the experts?
“We’ve got all the tools. We should be helping.”
On net-zero goals
Do we sit on the sidelines because it’s a hard task, or do we roll our sleeves up and get involved with making it a more carbon-neutral industry? We’ve got all the tools. We should be helping.
Gavin Blakemore
Photo: Pascall+Watson
Phil Argile
Associate Director, Hoare lea
Jet zero: responsible development at Manchester and London Stansted
Having put our skills to use at Manchester Airport, we were recently privileged to watch the first flight take off from the new Pier 2, marking the completion of work we began in 2018. We provided a breadth of design services for the Manchester Airport Transformation Programme including MEP, Lighting, Fire, Acoustics, Sustainability, Vertical Transportation and Air Quality.
“Decarbonising airport terminals isn’t just about big tech swaps or shiny new builds,” says Phil Argile, who’s helped breathe new life into existing kit as part of the Terminal 2 reconfiguration. “It’s about making smart, balanced decisions that work for both people and the planet. Instead of scrapping everything, we have replaced those important life safety items and, where possible, refurbished and upgraded the old equipment.
“The air handling units are a great example. We kept the shell but improved the guts, ending up with a much more efficient system and a big saving on embodied carbon. It’s low-impact engineering that still delivers high performance.”
On decarbonising terminals
Sometimes the best solution is the simplest one – especially when it comes to maintenance and controls. We’re designing with the full life cycle in mind, not just day-one performance.
Over at London Stansted – which is aiming for net-zero operation emissions by 2038 and investing heavily into a PV farm to boost green infrastructure – Phil has started on the future-facing, all-electric North Extension design, focused on cutting operational emissions from day one.
“What ties both together is our approach: working closely with clients and stakeholders to truly understand how these terminals operate. We’re not just throwing in oversized plant to hit a theoretical peak. We’re interrogating real passenger flow, operational patterns, energy use, coming up with pragmatic solutions that actually fit – and we’re thinking long term. Sometimes the best solution is the simplest one – especially when it comes to maintenance and controls. We’re designing with the full life cycle in mind, not just day-one performance.
“Beyond individual projects, we’re helping Manchester Airports Group update their technical standards – influencing how sustainability and performance are embedded across all their future developments, even those we’re not directly involved in. That is where real progress happens.”
Paul Cornwell
Director, Hoare lea
Going big in Bournemouth
Bournemouth Airport, on the Dorset coast, is undergoing a multi-million pound upgrade, with Jet2 establishing its 12th UK base from February 2025 with 16 new routes, and existing carriers TUI and Ryanair continuing to invest in capacity.
“We were engaged to review the external plant and servicing arrangements for the existing departures terminal building with a view to relocating them,” says the project’s director, Paul Cornwell.
“It was part of an enabling works package to clear the area for a planned departures terminal extension. We were then engaged on the departure building extension – an exciting project intended to nearly double the terminal area, increase passenger capacity and enhance passenger and staff experience.”
Of course, says Paul, at face value, being involved in an aviation expansion project could be seen to be at odds with our North Star but, as he explains, it was clear from the outset that there was a real opportunity to help Bournemouth Airport improve its sustainability offering and decarbonise the existing terminal heating system as part of the airport’s commitment to achieve net zero carbon emissions from its own operations by 2040 at the latest.
“We worked with the airport to monitor their existing heating system flow and return temperatures, adjusting them to align with a new high-temperature air source heat pump solution.
“The existing heating system and passenger and staff thermal comfort were monitored over the winter of 2024/25 to ensure that thermal comfort could be maintained within the existing building while running at heat pump aligned temperatures. This enabled the existing heating distribution system and emitters to be retained, avoiding the waste of systems which were still functional from a cost and embodied carbon perspective.”
The end-of-life oil-fired boilers will be decommissioned and the existing building heating system connected to the new air source heat pump installation which will also supply a new heating distribution system and heat emitters within the new extension and remodelled areas. A full building design stage Part L assessment was undertaken to assess the impact of the changes, and the departures terminal was determined to achieve an EPC rating of B with scope for the future addition of photovoltaic panels to potentially improve this to an A rating.
“We have also assisted the airport with a bespoke sustainability charter arranged around the Five Capitals approach,” says Paul, referring to the model for understanding sustainability in terms of value creation, “to assist in the ongoing management of their sustainability objectives.”
On sustainability objectives
It was clear from the outset that there was a real opportunity to help Bournemouth Airport improve its sustainability offering and decarbonise the existing terminal heating system.
On large-scale infrastructure
Done right, [airports] can actually be a catalyst for positive change, but that requires early community engagement to understand complex local needs.
Dr Paul Hanna
Image courtesy of Enscape / Pascall + Watson
Lessons from the 1820s, and the 2020s: masterplans and diversified revenue
Focusing on supporting growth-driving activity such as advanced manufacturing, science and research, logistics and other on-airport businesses, the airport city is an urban development model that aims to improve the ‘liveability’ of areas surrounding an airport campus. It is to today’s landscape of opportunity and development what the advent of trains was to the Victorians – who would see towns begin to spring up around stations.
Enter the aerotropolis
“Post-Covid, with airport revenue greatly impacted, most airports have been looking at the brownfield sites that they own around the airport campus and establishing masterplans that give them a revenue in case something happens to the aviation sector again,” says Gavin Blakemore.
“Many are looking at masterplans now that include commercial opportunities, logistics, S&R, advanced manufacturing – the list goes on. While these wouldn’t be aviation per se, they have touchpoints with the sector i.e. the client tends to be an airport. Great examples are Heathrow, Manchester, Coventry, Bournemouth.
“While, as a business, we want to contribute to the aviation sector, this also gives us the ability to open doors into other sectors, which we can use as a springboard onto other projects. It makes it more viable and creates a continuous work stream for business to assist the client in the key things they are looking to achieve.”
Engine for growth: a frontier industry
“Our view at the Aerospace Technology Institute is that the transition to more sustainable aircraft technologies, including battery-electric and hydrogen, will open new market opportunities as an engine for growth,” says Jacqueline Castle. “88% of aerospace jobs are outside of London and the South East, reflecting the strength and depth of capability in the sector across the regions and nations of the UK.
“The Government’s Modern Industrial Strategy identified aerospace as one of the UK’s frontier industries and confirmed a 10-year funding commitment to the ATI Programme worth up to £2.3bn to 2035. Long-term certainty gives companies the confidence to invest in the UK and plays a crucial role in developing the ultra-efficient and zero-carbon emission aircraft we need to achieve our sustainability goals.”
Jonathan Payne
Director, Hoare lea
Rising pressure: navigating change in aviation MRO
While all these developments present exciting challenges, we must also consider vital cogs in the aviation machine. “There is excessive pressure on UK-based maintenance, repair and overhaul providers (MRO) in terms of cost and aircraft turnaround times, due to regulations, skilled-workforce costs and hangar bay availability,” says Jonathan Payne. “The aviation industry has long been characterised by its complexity, with MRO operations serving as the backbone of safe and efficient flight, and in recent years, it has undergone significant transformations driven by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and an evolving operational environment. “One of the most palpable changes is the integration of digital technologies,” he says. “The advent of predictive maintenance powered by big data analytics allows operators to identify potential failures before they occur, thus enhancing safety and reducing downtime, while the use of augmented and virtual reality in training and on-the-job applications is revolutionising how technicians receive training and perform intricate repairs. These tools not only boost efficiency but help maintain a skilled workforce amid a global talent shortage.
“Yet the changes do bring about their own set of challenges. The rapid pace of technological adoption necessitates continuous workforce training and upskilling, which can strain resources, particularly for smaller MRO providers,” Jonathan continues. “Additionally, integrating new systems with existing legacy equipment creates interoperability issues that can complicate operations rather than streamline them.”
Then there’s regulatory compliance – presenting a formidable challenge in this dynamic landscape. “As aviation grapples with increased scrutiny post-pandemic, MRO providers must navigate a maze of regulations from various authorities,” says Jonathan. “Staying compliant requires significant investment in time and resources, exacerbating pressures.”
With airlines under pressure to adopt eco-friendly practices that impact MRO providers’ cost structures and operational methodologies, the shift towards sustainability is reshaping operations. “From utilising biodegradable materials to implementing more efficient waste management systems, the industry is tasked with balancing environmental responsibilities with economic viability.”
Shifting paradigms
As with the future of aviation as a whole, it’s about balance. “While MROs face transformative changes that open the door to greater efficiency and safety, it must also negotiate workforce training, regulatory compliance, and sustainability,” says Jonathan. “Its future lies in its ability to adapt to these shifting paradigms, ensuring the sector not only survives but flourishes in an ever-evolving aviation landscape.”
Every part of the aviation sector is driving towards sustainable growth. There’s innovation happening everywhere you look, from redesigning airspace and utilising electric ground handling vehicles, through to preparing airport infrastructure for SAF, and eventually hydrogen-powered aircraft.
Jacqueline Castle
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